I am now into the 3rd year of my Italian football betting Strategy and there is no doubt about it this season the dynamics of the league seem to have changed somewhat from the past two seasons.
The basic idea of the strategy is that through research I have found the draw to be priced too low when compared to my ratings. So initially my idea was to look at a way that the draw should be opposed.
I then decided to back the home side if they were a. The favourite and b. The lowest rated side.
It was then pointed out to me by a member that the selections were producing a fair number of 0-0 draws so maybe I should look to place 1 point on the home side and cover the No goal scorer with 0.25pts.
The reason we look at No Goal scorer as opposed to the 0-0 score line is that if there is an own goal scored that is still regarded as No Goal scorer.
Also it was noticed that by removing all away sides which were either a Grade A or B side increased the return.
So over seasons 2011/12 2012/13 this has produced the following statistics and returns.
81 Selections with 45 home wins 27 draws of which 15 were 0-0 and ONLY 9 away losses leaving +32.72pts profit.
However this season has certainly seen a change and so far we have had the following
21 Selections with 8 home wins, 9 draws of which 2 were 0-0 and 4 away losses leaving -3.55 pt loss.
So we are certainly seeing more draws and goals with the 0-0 score line coming right down. It is early days yet and this can change. However we have seen more goals and teams such as Milan and Verona are certainly not performing as you might have expected at the start of the season.
However what is still consistent is that laying the away team in these matches is still proving profitable.
Over the past 3 seasons laying the away side in these matches has produced the following results
Season 2011/12 – 35 Selections: 3 Losers: +25.07 pts
Season 2012/13 – 46 Selections: 6 Losers +24.90 pts
Season 2013/14 (So far) – 21 Selections: 4 Losers +6.75 pts
So in 2 and a half seasons over 102 selections this strategy has shown +56.72 pts profit with the biggest losing amount at any stage being -4.89 pts.
As we can see by the table below this still remains incredibly consistent. Also I believe this is the only league that this strategy works in and this is all down to how the draw is priced against the match ratings. If there is no value in the draw then the away side should be opposed.
I have looked at other leagues where the draw price tends to be low such as France. However this strategy simply does not work and I believe it is because it is easier for a lower side to break into the top 10. Whereas in Italy it is exactly the opposite where the top 7 sides rarely change year on year.
Another interesting observation which was again bought up by the same member is that he observed promoted clubs that come into the equation. He noted that when the promoted clubs were at home they very rarely lost and when away they seldom won.
Looking at the stats on the table below in the games that are involving the promoted sides (highlighted in yellow) we can see the following
33 Selections: 30 winners +30 pts: 3 losers – 6.75 pts: Total +23.25 pts
Which again is an incredible return.
In reality although you are laying at an average price of 3.85 which is the equivalent of backing at around 1.35 it still offers some superb value. However basing your betting plan solely around this system takes
Sticking to this one system can be hard as there are so many distractions to the average punter. Also this takes a little nerve and ultimately it is how you react to a losing bet and having the nerve to see the system through.
Although over the two and a half seasons the longest losing streak points wise has been -4.89 this still meant placing the next bet and this would have put you at risk of going down 7 points.
However even if you are playing with a modest bank of £25 a point a profit of £1420 over this period of time is still not to be sniffed at.
In truth most people are either recreational gamblers or take a punt as a side interest so a system such as the above is not really of interest. However I do have a member Viagra online cheap who does nothing but lay these selections since the idea was introduced since last season and he has taken this strategy extremely seriously.
In conclusion despite the obvious shift of dynamics in the Serie A there is still very good value in laying the away team under certain situations. If you are going to look to build your own strategy then make sure you back test over a number of seasons because I have not found another league that is anywhere near as consistent as the Serie A when it comes to this system.